“The upheaval of our world and the upheaval of our consciousness are one and the same”, Carl Jun - It is fair to say that COVID 19 has universally disrupted lives. Simple liberties like visiting friends and family, attending church, which we take for granted, have been curtailed by lockdowns. As a result, human beings have adapted their behaviors.
“Consumers don’t think how they feel. They don’t
say what they think and they don’t do what they say”, David Ogilvy - What people
worry about may not be what they need to worry about and is very likely different
from what gets reported in the press. The image below has data which is morbid,
and a bit dated, but makes the point. Heart disease is the biggest killer in
the US but amongst the least researched and reported.
“The world is a contradiction; the universe
is a paradox”, Kedar Joshi - As a student of economics, one theory that left an imprint on
me was Karl Marx’s theory of dialectic materialism. At its core, it is a
philosophical approach to change. In layman’s language it postulates that there is an existing
thesis which is challenged by an emergent anti-thesis and the collision of the
two results in a new synthesis. I like the framework of dialectical thinking
since it is a form of analytical reasoning that encourages one to view issues
from multiple perspectives to arrive at a reconciliation of opposing views and
perspectives.
Human beings are fundamentally irrational and don’t follow laws
of behavior like Newtonian laws. The irony is that Newtonian laws do break down
when applied to the complexity of sub-atomic physics. Surely this pandemic is
the human behavior equivalent of sub-atomic physics when it comes to
complexity.
Not all the behaviors adopted during COVID are going to endure
and equally a lot of Pre-COVID behaviors continued through the pandemic and
will endure into the future. For instance, even during the height of the lockdowns the married dating
site Ashley Madison actually increased its user base. At first glance it is
counter intuitive – why join a dating site (and a married data site at that) if
you are unable to physically meet people. Clearly, the pressures of working
from home have exposed fractures in relationships and people are looking for an
outlet or looking for just someone other than the spouse to speak with. It is
classic human behavior that has survived the ages and will survive COVID as well.
“If curiosity killed the cat, it was
satisfaction that brought it back” Holly Black – My belief is that the
recent “new” human behaviors will fall into a spectrum ranging from those that will
unwind ASAP to those that will endure. I think that with satisfaction with the current
behavior will be the determining factor.
In the immediate aftermath of Singapore going into Circuit breaker, I remember we had a
number of “zoom parties”. In fact “zoom drinking” seemed to be a decent thing -
you save time travelling to the bar, the drinks are cheaper and you get to
interact with friends. If all of humanity computed utility from activities the
way Sheldon Cooper in the TV series, The Big Bang Theory does, “zoom drinking” would endure.
But alas…..Fast forward to today and even with restrictions of 5 per table, no
alcohol served off premises etc all bars and restaurants are packed to
capacity. Clearly, “zoom drinking” was way less satisfactory than catching up
with friends in person.
Walking around Singapore’s eating hot spots like Amoy street,
Arab street I am amazed at the fact that restaurants are back to being full
(albeit with social distancing). I was on leave this week and I myself have
eaten out 5 times – thrice with the family and twice with friends and on each occasion the restaurant has been full. I would
predict that the restaurant business will bounce back as soon as restrictions
are eased.
At the other end of the human behavior spectrum you have
contactless delivery. Before COVID the act of receiving a home delivery from a
restaurant involved checking the items were as per order, the food was “warm”
and possibly tip the person delivering the food. Fast forward to today and the
ringing of the door bell and a text message indicates a delivery has been made
at the door and needs to be picked up. The fact is that even if the delivery does
not match the order or is cold, the delivery guy can’t do much. Given that most
of them belong to syndicated services like Deliveroo or Grab, they can’t or won’t
even take the order back. Grievances need to be taken up directly with the
restaurant.
Human interaction is important (as seen in the restaurant
example) but only if it is has value – even if social or psychological. In the
case of home delivery there is no “value” or “utility” to the human
interaction. Hence, the new behavior of accepting contactless delivery is
likely to stick around. The same extends to vast tranches of ecommerce
shopping. I am not suggesting that malls will be ghost towns in Singapore
anytime soon but a lot of things will continue to be bought online and
ecommerce is likely to continue to grow.
Somewhere in the middle of the spectrum is gym going and
fitness. In fact, it is a microcosm that reflects the spectrum. On the one
extreme, if you were going to a gym only to attend a spin class, a virtual spin
class with your newly acquired peloton is a good option. But if you need a
trainer to show you the moves an online class is less than satisfactory. After
all instructions on the other end of a call don’t really help you alter your
posture.
I have an irrational fear of hurting myself with a wrong posture
doing weights or yoga and so have never done an online class. Once circuit
breaker was over, I went back to working out with my physical trainer and went
back to the Yoga class. It probably explains why gyms offering Muay Thai and
Yoga seem to be back to being full. Another reason for going to the gym is to
use heavy duty equipment which is impossible to store and use at home. Yes
there was a mushrooming of “do it at home” alternatives but none of them were
“the real deal” especially for those seriously into pumping weights.
I think gyms will survive but in a different avatar. This new
avatar will probably not just survive but thrive alongside the pelotons and
other in home fitness programs / mechanisms.
“The future depends on what we do in the
present”, Mahatma Gandhi – The old adage of if a behavior sticks for 21 days it will
stick has been broken by the extreme turbulence. Remember “zoom drinking” was a
habit for circa 6 weeks but came unstuck before you could say abracabada.
I don’t think we should ask people to determine what they are
likely to do – no one knows and a rational response may not match actual behavior.
A better way to predict the future is to observe current behavior and
satisfaction with it.
For instance, I run long distance races as a hobby and register
for one a month. (To clarify anything north of 10Km counts as a long distance
in my lexicon.) This year the races were initially postponed and finally
converted to “virtual races”. The idea is that you cover the distance, send
the organizers proof of having done the run and voila you get your medal and other paraphernalia like the
finishers T-shirt. But it misses the point of running an organized race. I
mean, if I want to run 10Km I can do it on my own. I pay the race organizers not
for the medal or t-shirt but for the experience – the joy of running with strangers,
the thrill of seeing the timing at the finish line, the feel of the medal
against the sweat drenched skin….. none of this is rational but hey what’s
rational about wanting to cover 10km, 21 km or 42km on your feet especially on a Sunday morning.
Virtual races don’t offer the same satisfaction and hence I
don’t think virtual races will survive in the long run.
Running along the East coast park of Singapore over weekends, I
am amazed at just how crowded it is. In fact so crowded are the beaches of
Singapore that the government has introduced a mechanism to “book” your slot in
advance and yes no booking, no entry. The beaches of Singapore pale in
comparison to Bali, Phuket or even Bintan but the fact that they are packed is
a sign that people are longing for the beach. I would predict that as soon as
air travel opens and the government allows leisure travel, we will see a return
to travelling for holiday. Business travel, I am not so sure about.
Predicting which behaviors will stick and wont is a challenge the business world is grappling with. The task is more onerous given the added unknown of the economic impact of the impending recession. One thing is for certain – there is no reset button that is available that can be pressed at mid night on the 31st of December (while we are enjoying a socially distanced New Year's eve celebration).
