Why Roy
Hodgson will determine the outcome of Brexit. And why all opinion polls
should be ignored.
Living in the UK, one cannot but follow the “BREXIT” debate
with fascination. Both sides of the debate strongly put forth arguments around
why the economy will be better off under their version of the future. So
listening to the remain camp I am led to believe that the economy would thrive
staying within the EU. Listening to the leave camp leads me to be believe that
the economy would thrive by leaving the EU. Of course all arguments are backed
by “statistics”. Reminds me of what Mark Twain once said “there are lies, there
are damm lies and there are statistics”.
It seems like it will impact everything – the economy,
employment rates, immigration, the value of home prices, possibility of war and
indeed the future of curry houses. The only thing that the outcome wont impact
seems to be the chances of finding a vaccine for AIDS. Thankfully, I don’t have the right to vote on
the topic. I would find it impossible to arrive at a rational decision based on
the “facts” being put forth by both sides.
I don’t find it surprising that this reflects in the split
opinion among the electorate. While the latest opinion poll on Brexit shows
“remain” to be ahead, I would interpret it as being a “dead heat”. Indeed, looking back at the response to the
question from 2013 shows remain and leave almost equally matched with a large
proportion of population being “undecided”.
Source :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
Of Sportsmen and
Gladiators
Sporting events are known to be associated with immense
passion and ones involving national teams invariably raise the levels of
nationalistic pride. Witness the euphoria surrounding the performance of Team
GB at the London 2012 Olympics.
Andrew Healey from Loyola Marymount University showed that
sports results can swing the outcome of elections. He showed that a win for the
local college football team within 10 days of the election positively impacted
the chances of the incumbent. The impact was stronger if the team had a strong
fan base and were the underdogs.
Why is this relevant to Brexit? English voters account for
almost 80% of the total voting population. The next largest block are the Scots
(~10%)
and they seem to be firmly in the remain camp (58% remain vs. 19% leave). So
the English voters are likely to make the most difference.
With 3 days to go to the referendum, England play their last
game of the league stage of Euro 2016. England have a large fan base and are
clearly underdogs – a win would uplift the spirit of the nation and propel the
remain campain forward. Equally failing
to reach the next stage, particularly on account of Wales (also in the same
group) would be a dampener on the spirit of the nation and propel the leave
campaign forward.
Is any opinion poll
accounting for this? No. Well so how accurate are they going to be???
“The economy, stupid”
– Campaign slogan of Bill Clinton
A recent ComRes telephone poll for The Daily Mail and ITV
News shows that the economy is the largest factor influencing voters. It was
for the first time that the economy was cited ahead of migration.
I can empathise with that given all the discussion around
the potential impact on the prices of houses. Again depending on whom you
listen to it could impact house prices negatively by upto 18% and mortgage
rates would rise (Remain camp) or have no impact at all (Leave campaign). The
more evocative topic is around jobs and business prospects. The debate was
exemplified when the fate of curry houses was dragged into the debate!!!
Economists have studied approval ratings for the European
project against the monthly unemployment rates. They found that when
unemployment is rising approval of the membership goes down. Hardly surprising
I would say. The correlation is more intuitive than the one between divorce
rates in Maine and the per capital consumption of Margarine. (Source - http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations).
Here is the thing – the next tranche of employment data is
due to be published on the 15th of June. With 8 days to go before a
major referendum we will have new information that will swing opinions of the
electorate in general and the “14% undecided” in particular.
Is any opinion poll
accounting for this? No. Well so how accurate are they going to be???
“In everything one thing is impossible :
rationality” – Friedrich Nietzsche
As human beings we are far less rational than we would like
to think we are. Indeed as Robert A. Heinlein said “Man is not a rational
animal, he is a rationalising animal”. Behaviour
of human beings while voting is no different. Voting decisions are not based on
a rational and objective reasoning despite their importance to the functioning
of a democracy. Like with a lot of our other decisions, its all about emotions.
The outcome of Brexit will be determined by emotions. The
feel good factor of either England, the quintessential underdogs, progressing
to the next round or good employment figures would lead to a vote to remain.
None of the opinion polls are factoring in emotional sentiments. Hence, they
are at best “broad indicators”. The current “broad indication” is that it will
be a close race – a conclusion I could reach by reading the newspapers and
tuning into the radio.
